New Credit Scoring Rules in 2025: BNPL Data and VantageScore Could Change Mortgage Access

In 2025, credit scoring in the U.S. is entering a new era. For decades, most mortgage lenders relied almost entirely on the FICO score to measure borrower risk. But this year, new rules mean “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) payment history and alternative scoring models like VantageScore will play a much bigger role.

According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), around 45 million Americans either have no credit history or too little data to generate a traditional score. These new rules could bring many of them into the credit system, giving more people access to mortgages.

But what does this mean for homebuyers, and how should you prepare? Let’s look at the details.

Why Credit Scoring Rules Are Changing

For years, experts have argued that the FICO system leaves out too many responsible consumers. Regulators, lenders, and even housing agencies want to expand access to credit fairly—while still protecting financial stability.

Here are the three main drivers of change:

1. The Explosion of BNPL Usage
   A 2024 TransUnion report found that nearly 1 in 5 U.S. consumers (about 100 million people) have used BNPL services such as Klarna, Affirm, or Afterpay. Younger adults especially rely on BNPL for everyday purchases. Until recently, those payments didn’t count toward credit histories. Now they will.
   
   
2. Growing Adoption of VantageScore
   VantageScore estimates that its model makes about 33 million more consumers “scoreable” compared to FICO. Many of these are younger buyers, renters, and immigrants with limited credit files.
   
   
3. Push From Regulators
   In 2025, federal housing regulators encouraged lenders to consider both FICO and VantageScore models. This move is designed to expand credit access without lowering standards.

What Is VantageScore and How Is It Different From FICO?

FICO still dominates mortgage lending, but VantageScore is gaining momentum because it uses data differently.

• Credit History Length: FICO requires at least 6 months of activity. VantageScore can generate a score with as little as 1 month of data.
  
  
• Alternative Data: VantageScore can include rent, utilities, and now BNPL payments.
  
  
• Coverage: According to VantageScore’s 2024 report, more than 255 million consumers in the U.S. already have a VantageScore.

For someone with a short or limited credit history, this flexibility could mean the difference between being denied and being approved for a mortgage.

How BNPL Will Affect Scores

BNPL is becoming a double-edged sword for borrowers.

• Positive Impact: A borrower who pays their $200 BNPL installment on time each month shows responsible behavior. Over time, that can help increase their score.
  
  
• Negative Impact: A missed $50 BNPL payment could lower a score, especially if the borrower has few other credit accounts.

Data from Experian shows that 38% of BNPL users in 2024 missed at least one payment. That means millions could see their scores negatively affected in 2025 if they don’t manage BNPL carefully.

Impact on Mortgage Access in 2025

The credit scoring changes are expected to reshape the mortgage market in several ways:

1. More Approvals for First-Time Buyers
   Freddie Mac estimates that renters who add on-time rental payments to their reports can improve their credit scores by 20–40 points on average. That could push many renters above the minimum threshold for mortgage approval.
   
   
2. Reduced Dependence on Credit Cards
   Traditionally, credit cards were the fastest way to build credit. Now, responsible BNPL and utility payments will matter too, giving more flexibility to consumers.
   
   
3. Broader Access Without Lowering Standards
   Lenders still require good debt-to-income (DTI) ratios and proof of income. But with more consumers scoring above 620 (the common minimum for conventional mortgages) under VantageScore, approvals could increase.

Risks to Borrowers

While the changes bring opportunity, there are risks too:

• Over-Reliance on BNPL: A CFPB study showed the average BNPL user in 2024 carried 3 to 4 active BNPL accounts at once. Multiple accounts can signal risk, even with on-time payments.
  
  
• Scoring Confusion: A borrower may have a FICO score of 610 but a VantageScore of 660. Different lenders may interpret this differently.
  
  
• More Data = More Mistakes: With rent, utilities, and BNPL being reported, errors may increase. The FTC estimates that 1 in 5 consumers already has an error in their credit report.

What Borrowers Should Do in 2025

To prepare for the new credit environment, here are some practical steps:

1. Track Both Scores
   Don’t just check your FICO. Many banks and credit apps now show your VantageScore for free.
   
   
2. Use BNPL Sparingly
   Treat BNPL like a credit card. A $300 monthly balance paid on time can help, but too many active BNPL loans could hurt your approval chances.
   
   
3. Report Rent and Utility Payments
   Services like Experian Boost allow you to add utilities and rent to your file. Data shows that renters who report payments see an average score increase of 12–18 points.
   
   
4. Build Savings
   Mortgage lenders look beyond scores. Having 3–6 months of savings reassures them that you’re prepared for homeownership.
   
   
5. Work With Mortgage Experts
   Because lenders weigh data differently, working with a professional can help you understand whether your profile looks better under FICO or VantageScore.

Could This Reshape Homeownership?

The new scoring rules could expand the pool of eligible homebuyers significantly. Analysts estimate that by including BNPL and alternative data, up to 20% more Americans may become mortgage-eligible in the coming years.

For Gen Z and younger Millennials, who often use BNPL and may lack long credit histories, this could be the turning point that makes buying a first home possible.

However, the real key will be responsible financial management. More data in your file means more opportunities to shine—but also more chances for small mistakes to hurt your score.

Final Thoughts

Credit scoring in 2025 is becoming more inclusive, with BNPL payments and VantageScore giving millions of people a fairer shot at homeownership. But with opportunity comes responsibility—borrowers must manage new types of credit carefully and track their reports closely.

If you’re planning to buy a home, understanding these changes and working with the right lender can help you unlock new opportunities. The team at Dylken Home Loans is ready to guide you through the process.

FAQs

1. How many Americans could benefit from the new scoring rules?

An estimated 45 million Americans with thin or no credit files could see improved access through BNPL reporting and VantageScore adoption.

2. Does every lender now use VantageScore?

Not all. While adoption is growing, many lenders still rely on FICO. Some may use both models to expand access responsibly.

3. Can BNPL really improve my score?

Yes, if payments are on time. But missed BNPL payments could lower your score quickly. In 2024, 38% of users missed at least one installment.

4. Will rent and utility payments always count toward mortgages?

If they are reported, yes. Data shows renters who add payments to their credit files often see an increase of 20–40 points.

5. Should I stop using BNPL before applying for a mortgage?

Not necessarily. Use it sparingly, pay on time, and avoid juggling too many active BNPL loans. Responsible usage can help, but overuse may raise red flags.

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